Midterms in Minnesota: Medical Alley’s Preview of the 2018 Election

With the 2018 Midterm Election just over a week away and more information than ever swirling around the candidates, the Medical Alley Association Government Relations team is here to help you cut through the noise. We have put together an overview of the races you need to know about here in Minnesota, but please note: This preview does not try to predict the outcome of these races. Rather, it provides historical context and attempts to give you a better understanding of the races’ backgrounds heading into Election Day. After the election, look for a recap of results, along with what they could mean for Medical Alley members and their likely impact on public policy for the next two years.

Overview

Minnesota is like most states in that, although the election between Presidential elections is colloquially known as the midterm election, every state-level, statewide office is on the ballot, as is every congressional and state House seat. What makes this election unique is that both U.S. Senate seats are up, as is control of the state Senate. That makes this so-called “off-year election” action-packed.

This preview will touch on three of the state-level statewide offices: Governor/Lt. Governor, Attorney General, and Secretary of State, as well as both U.S. Senate elections. It will also take a look at competitive congressional matchups and key races in the state Legislature, where control of both the House and the Senate is up for grabs. A quick index of recent electoral results for each race is located at the end of the preview.

Minnesota State-Level Statewide Offices

Minnesota Governor & Lt. Governor

Incumbent: Open (Mark Dayton & Michelle Fischbach)

DFL: Tim Walz & Peggy Flanagan

GOP: Jeff Johnson & Donna Bergstrom

Following a bruising primary campaign for both candidates, the gubernatorial race started out a bit sleepy, but it has picked up steam in recent weeks. There have been lively debates between both Walz and Johnson and between Flanagan and Bergstrom, where each took pointed approaches to differentiating themselves – a significant change from early in the race. Recent polling shows Walz leading Johnson by six points.

Each candidate’s winning strategy is no secret. Walz and Flanagan need to drive turnout in the seven-county metro area (primarily within Minneapolis and St. Paul), capitalize on Walz’s name ID and popularity in his old Congressional District (CD1), and minimize losses in the rest of the state. Johnson and Bergstrom need to drive up the margins in CD 6, 7, and 8, try to drive down Walz and Flanagan’s numbers in CD1, and make sure Republican voters in the Metro area show up and vote red.

Minnesota Gubernatorial races have historically been close elections with only one candidate (Dayton in 2014) receiving more than 50 percent of the vote since 1994. No race has been decided by more than eight points during that same time frame. If elected, Walz would be the first resident of Greater Minnesota elected Governor since 1991. His election would also mark the first time the DFL party has ever held the Minnesota Governor’s office for more than eight consecutive years.

Minnesota Attorney General

Incumbent: Open (Lori Swanson)

DFL: Keith Ellison

GOP: Doug Wardlow

The Minnesota Attorney General’s office has been held by a member of the DFL party since 1971 – nearly fifty consecutive years. After not receiving the endorsement of the DFL Party in May (it went to Matt Pelikan), Lori Swanson entered the Governor’s race, leaving the Attorney General’s office open. Several candidates jumped in on the DFL side, but Congressman Keith Ellison emerged with a big win on primary night. Doug Wardlow was the endorsed GOP candidate in the primary and, while he faced multiple challengers, easily dispatched them to win the nomination.

This race typically flies under the radar. Due to allegations against Ellison, however, this year it has been more noteworthy, and what the candidates have said and done is under an abnormal amount of scrutiny. Most polls indicate this is a close race and likely gives Republicans their best chance to win a statewide race in Minnesota since 2006.

A recent poll from the Star Tribune & MPR found Wardlow ahead by seven points.

Minnesota Secretary of State

Incumbent: Steve Simon

DFL: Steve Simon

GOP: John Sterling Howe

Current Secretary of State Steve Simon is running for a second term this fall. Since Dan Severson opted to not run for a third time, former State Senator John Howe stepped up with a bid. This race can be somewhat of a benchmark race, in that, since neither candidate typically has the money to cut through the noise of other races, it tends to more accurately reflect the partisan makeup of those who vote in it. That is something to keep an eye on as the early returns come in.

United State Senate Races

Class 1 Senate Seat: Term to expire in 2024

Incumbent: Amy Klobuchar

DFL: Amy Klobuchar

GOP: Jim Newberger

Senator Amy Klobuchar is seeking her third term in the United States Senate; she has won her previous two elections by significant margins. Sen. Klobuchar has long been a champion of the health technology industry and helped ensure the suspension of the Medical Device Excise Tax on two occasions.

State Representative Jim Newberger is making his first bid for statewide office. He is a three-term state legislator and paramedic from Becker, Minnesota. He has captured more than 57 percent of the vote in each of his three elections to the Minnesota House of Representatives.

Recent polling shows Sen. Klobuchar with a comfortable lead.

Class 2 Senate Seat, Special Election: Term to expire in 2021

Incumbent: Tina Smith (appointed in 2018)

DFL: Tina Smith

GOP: Karin Housley

Due to former Senator Al Franken’s resignation earlier this year, Minnesota has two U.S. Senate elections on the ballot. Governor Mark Dayton appointed his Lt. Governor, Tina Smith, to fill the open Senate seat in January. The winner of this special election will serve out the remainder of the original term that expires in 2021. This Senate seat will again be on the ballot in 2020 for the full six-year term.

This is Senator Tina Smith’s first campaign as the headlining candidate (she ran for Lt. Governor in 2014). She has significant experience as an operative and staffer on various statewide campaigns and was chief of staff to Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Ryback and Governor Mark Dayton. Tina has a background in marketing and previously worked at General Mills as well as starting her own business.

State Senator Karin Housley is also making her first attempt as the headlining candidate for statewide office (she ran for Lt. Governor with Scott Honour in the GOP primary in 2014). She was first elected to the state Senate in 2012 and currently serves as the chair of the Aging & Long-Term Care Policy committee in that body. Karin has experience in the communications field and as an entrepreneur.

A recent poll shows Senator Smith up six points on state Senator Housley.

Congressional Races

First Congressional District

Incumbent: Open (Tim Walz)

DFL: Dan Feehan

GOP: Jim Hagedorn

The First Congressional district spans the entire length of Minnesota’s southern border. Major cities include Rochester, Mankato, Austin, Worthington, and Marshall. Congressman Tim Walz has held this seat since his upset of Gil Gutknecht in 2006. Donald Trump comfortably won this district in 2016 and Johnson edged out Dayton here in 2014.

Dan Feehan is making his first run for public office. He grew up in Red Wing and served two tours of duty in Iraq. He moved back to Minnesota after serving as acting Assistant Secretary of Defense in the Pentagon.

Jim Hagedorn is making his third attempt to capture this seat. He grew up near Truman and his father was elected to Congress (in what was then the 2^nd district) in 1974. Jim has served in a variety of government roles and has experience in several areas of the federal government.

Polling in this district, done two weeks before the election, revealed that this race is essentially tied.

Second Congressional District

Incumbent: Jason Lewis

DFL: Angie Craig

GOP: Jason Lewis

The Second Congressional District features a rematch of a closely watched and hotly contested race from 2016. This district is about as close as it gets, and the numbers from the 2016 Presidential and 2014 Gubernatorial races bear that out: President Trump and Johnson, respectively, each received more votes than their opponents here even though President Obama won it in 2012. Notably, unlike 2014 and 2016, there is no third-party candidate on the ballot.

Congressman Jason Lewis is seeking his second term representing this district. He won the Republican primary and endorsement to succeed retiring Republican Congressman John Kline in 2016. Jason has hosted and co-hosted a number of talk shows, including his own for several years that was based in the Twin Cities.

Angie Craig is making her second run at winning this district. She previously ran in 2016 and lost by a close margin to Congressman Lewis. Craig has spent 22 years working in the medtech field, first at Smith & Nephew and most recently at St. Jude Medical, which was bought by Abbott. Her work was predominantly focused on health policy, media and government relations, and corporate communications.

Third Congressional District

Incumbent: Erik Paulsen

DFL: Dean Philips

GOP: Erik Paulsen

The Third Congressional District has become one of the most closely watched races in the country over the last year. This district gave a majority to Hillary Clinton in 2016, while also overwhelmingly re-electing Erik Paulsen and many Republican state legislators, and it is the wealthiest and most highly educated in the state.

Congressman Erik Paulsen is seeking his sixth term in the House of Representatives. He has been a consistent champion for the health technology industry and fought successfully to suspend the Medical Device Excise Tax twice. He is chair of the Joint Economic Committee and co-chair of the House Medical Technology Caucus.

Dean Philips is making his first bid for elected office. He has been CEO of Philips Distilling Company and launched several successful businesses including Talenti Gelato and Penny’s Coffee. He has been Board Chair of Allina Health and served on the St. John’s University Board of Regents.

Seventh Congressional District

Incumbent: Collin Peterson

DFL: Collin Peterson

GOP: Dave Hughes

The Seventh Congressional District is extremely large geographically and contains the most farmland of any district in the state. Its second-largest population center, Willmar, has fewer than 20,000 people and nearly 2/3rds of its residents live in rural areas. Congressman Peterson has held onto this district for more than twenty years, but Bill Clinton is the last Democratic Presidential candidate to win in this district.

Dave Hughes is running for the second time. After a relatively comfortable primary win, he finished almost exactly five points behind Congressman Peterson in 2016 – but trailed President Trump by nearly fourteen points. His primary this time around was even less contested as Hughes took nearly 75 percent of the votes, setting up this rematch with Peterson.

Eighth Congressional District

Incumbent: Open (Rick Nolan)
DFL: Joe Radinovich

GOP: Pete Stauber

Minnesota’s Eighth Congressional District has become an example of shifting electoral demographics in recent years. Long a bastion of the DFL, it narrowly elected a Republican Congressman (Chip Cravaack) in 2010. Although it returned to historical form shortly thereafter – electing DFLer Rick Nolan in 2012 – President Trump found the formula for success in this district. This has been a hotly contested district since 2014 and that is unlikely to change in the near future, no matter who wins this election.

Joe Radinovich is a fourth generation “Ranger” who was born and raised on the Cuyuna Range. He was elected State Representative from the Crosby/Ironton/Aitkin region in 2012. More recently, he served as campaign manager for Rick Nolan in 2016 and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey in 2017, for whom he was also briefly Chief of Staff.

Pete Stauber is a St. Louis County Commissioner. He was born and raised in Duluth, where he later served as a police officer before retiring in 2017. He has also served on the Hermantown City Council and as President of the Law Enforcement Labor Services Union, Local 363.

A poll done earlier in October showed Stauber with a double-digit lead on Radinovich. Polling prior to that indicated a much closer race.

State Legislature

State Senate

There is only one seat up in the Minnesota State Senate this year, but the stakes could not be higher. When now-Lt. Governor Michelle Fischbach vacated her seat earlier this year, it took the Senate from a one-seat GOP majority to being tied. That meant whoever wins the special election for her seat would determine the majority in the Minnesota State Senate. As a result, both parties have spent countless hours and significant dollars in an attempt to win here.

The GOP candidate is current State Representative Jeff Howe. First elected to the state House in 2012, Howe is a retired Lt. Colonel in the Minnesota National Guard. He also served as a firefighter for multiple fire departments in the St. Cloud area. Before serving in the state House, Jeff was a member of the Rockville City Council.

The DFL nominated Joe Perske in their attempt to claim this seat. Joe is the former Mayor of Sartell and is currently a member of the Stearns County Board. He was born and raised in the district (Sauk Rapids) and attended St. John’s University. He taught physical education for nearly forty years and also coached girls varsity soccer and adaptive floor hockey teams.

SD13

DFL – Joe Perske

GOP – Jeff Howe

House of Representatives

All 134 seats in the Minnesota House of Representatives are up for re-election. Republicans have held the majority since the 2014 election and currently have a 76-55 majority; there are three open seats – two were previously held by the DFL, and one by the GOP. Democrats would need to win 11 seats that were won by Republicans in 2016 to take the majority. Republicans are defending 12 seats where Clinton received more votes than President Trump; DFLers are looking to protect seven seats where President Trump defeated Clinton. There are 15 open seats, seven of which are considered to be competitive (Note that only two open seats fall into the 12/7 dynamic mentioned in the previous sentence: 06B, previously held by retiring DFLer Jason Metsa; and 19A, previously held by retiring DFLer Clark Johnson).

12 House GOP Seats won by Hillary Clinton

33B

DFL – Kelly Morrison

GOP – Cindy Pugh (incumbent)

Clinton (2016) and Sen. Klobuchar (2012) are the only Democrats to win in this district since 2010.

34B

DFL – Kristin Bahner

GOP – Dennis Smith (incumbent)

Clinton (2016), Swanson (2014), and Sen. Klobuchar (2012) are the only Democrats to win in this district since 2010.

42A

DFL – Kelly Moller

GOP – Randy Jessup (incumbent)

Randy Jessup lost to incumbent DFL Barb Yarusso by 220 votes in 2014 but narrowly defeated her in their 2016 rematch. Jessup is the only Republican to win in this district since redistricting in 2010.

44A

DFL – Ginny Klevorn

GOP – Sarah Anderson (incumbent)

Mitt Romney won this district in 2012 by 671 votes. Republicans Johnson (Governor), Mike McFadden (U.S. Senate), Dan Severson (Secretary of State), and Paulsen (Congress) also won this district in 2014. Paulsen & State Sen. Paul Anderson were victorious this district as well in 2016.

48B

DFL – Carlie Kotyza-Witthun

GOP – Jenifer Loon (incumbent)

Clinton (2016) and Sen. Klobuchar (2012) are the only Democrats to win in this district since 2010.

49A

DFL – Heather Edelson

GOP – Dario Anselmo (incumbent)

Democratic congressional candidates won this district by 156 votes in 2016; they had lost by 1,789 in 2012. Anselmo also narrowly lost in his bid for State House for this district in 2014.

52B

DFL – Ruth Richardson

GOP – Regina Barr (incumbent)

Severson won in this district in his bid for Secretary of State by 21 votes in 2014. Dayton won by 358 votes in the same year on his way to winning the Governor’s race. On the Congressional level, Craig received the most votes here in 2016; John Kline had done so in 2012 and 2014.

53B

DFL – Steve Sandell

GOP – Kelly Fenton (incumbent)

Congresswoman Betty McCollum won this district by 70 votes in 2012; she has not won it since. Republican Sharna Walhgren won this district as a congressional candidate in 2014 and as a State Senate candidate in 2016.

54A

DFL – Anne Claflin

GOP – Keith Franke (incumbent)

Keith Franke and Kline are the only two Republicans to win in this district since 2010.

56A

DFL – Hunter Cantrell

GOP – Drew Christensen (incumbent)

56B

DFL – Alice Mann

GOP – Roz Peterson (incumbent)

Romney lost here by 66 votes in 2012; Roz Peterson lost her first bid by 170 votes the same year. Craig won this district by 260 votes in 2016 as part of her first run for Congress.

57B

DFL – John Huot

GOP – Anna Wills (incumbent)

GOP U.S. Senate candidate Kurt Bills received 41.4 percent of the vote here in 2012 – 10 points above his overall number (he was the retiring state legislator from this district in 2012). Wills was the only Republican to win this district in 2016.

7 House DFL Seats won by President Donald Trump

03A

DFL – Rob Ecklund (incumbent)

GOP – Randy Goutermont

President Trump is the only Republican to carry this district since redistricting in 2010.

04B

DFL – Paul Marquart (incumbent)

GOP – Jason Peterson

In 2016, President Trump won this district by 4,503 votes; while the DFL’s Collin Peterson took it by 4,243. Romney is the only other Republican to carry it since 2010, which he did by 943 votes in 2012.

06A

DFL – Julie Sandstede (incumbent)

GOP – Guy Anderson

President Trump is the only Republican to carry this district since redistricting in 2010 and the only Republican to get more than 41 percent during the same time period.

06B

Incumbent: Jason Metsa (DFL – retiring)

DFL – Dave Lislegard

GOP – Skeeter Tomczak

President Trump is the only Republican to carry this district since redistricting in 2010.

19A

Incumbent: Clark Johnson (DFL – retiring)

DFL – Jeff Brand

GOP – Kim Spears

President Trump is the only Republican to carry this district since redistricting in 2010.

27B

DFL – Jeanne Poppe (incumbent)

GOP – Christine Green

President Trump is the only Republican to carry this district since redistricting in 2010.

37A

DFL – Erin Koegel (incumbent)

GOP – Anthony Wilder

This district is split between three congressional districts – 3, 5, & 6; The GOP congressional candidate ‘won’ this district in 2014 & 2016, after the DFL congressional candidate did so in 2012. The only other GOP candidate to carry this district in any of those three elections? No points for guessing this one: President Trump.

Competitive Open Seats

The following seven open seats are the most hotly contested of the fifteen. There is not a common thread among them – other than the current Representative is not on the general election ballot. Most of these have not changed hands in recent years, but could do so due to changes in voting patterns, a well-liked legislator retiring, or it just being a historically competitive seat. While the outcome of the seats in the previous sections will likely determine if the DFL can take the majority, a shift in one or two of these will make a big difference in the size of either party’s majority.

20B

Incumbent: David Bly (DFL – retiring)

DFL – Todd Lippert

GOP – Josh Gare

36A

Incumbent: Mark Uglem (GOP – retiring)

DFL: Zach Stephenson

GOP: Bill Maresh

38B

Incumbent: Matt Dean (GOP – retiring)

DFL: Ami Wazlawik

GOP: Patti Anderson

44B

Incumbent: Jon Applebaum (DFL – retiring)

DFL: Patti Acomb

GOP: Gary Porter

47B

Incumbent: Joe Hoppe (GOP – retiring)

DFL: Donzell Leggett

GOP: Greg Boe

53A

Incumbent: JoAnne Ward (DFL – retiring)

DFL: Tou Xiong

GOP: Andy Turonie

55A

Incumbent: Bob Loonan (GOP – lost primary)

DFL: Brad Tabke

GOP: Erik Mortensen

Despite Minnesota being a fiercer battleground state than it has ever been before, polling in the state has been relatively sparse, which sets Election Night up for high drama. As is typical, many of the statewide races have tightened considerably over the last six weeks, which only further obscures both parties’ chances of making the gains they want in the state. Local campaigns may have a sense of how they’ll perform, but that data isn’t being made public.

No matter what happens locally, statewide, and nationally, the sun will rise November 7^th. Minnesota will still be the global epicenter of health innovation and care, and the Medical Alley Association Government Relations team will be here to help policymakers – new or returning – craft policies that will help the state stay that way.